Book Mark Us

17 May 2012

What if Professional Athletes Were Professional Gamblers Instead?

If you’re like me, sometimes you’ll wonder how certain professional athletes would earn their livings if it wasn’t for sports. I asked Blake Griffin and he told me he’d be a strength trainer. I suppose I’d hire Blake to bulk me up and all, but what if certain athletes tried their hand as a professional sports gambler?

We don’t have to look that hard for real-life examples. Pete Rose is banned from the Hall of Fame for betting on his own team while still managing it. Charles Barkley admitted his gambling problem has cost him over $10 million over his lifetime after the Wynn in Vegas came after him for $400,000 in unpaid casino markers. Floyd Mayweather Jr. routinely tweets out pictures of his winning six-figure betting slips (all of his losing tickets, however appear to be extremely camera shy). And I’ve personally seen Allen Iverson lose a cool quarter of a million dollars in two hours playing three-card poker in Atlantic City.

Here are my guesses at what some other superstars would be like if they tried to make their living by betting on sports.


LeBron James: You can count on LBJ to cash in for most of the year and he’ll do it in style. This guy makes the most challenging wagers seem like a walk in the park. Eight-team parlays, a 300-1 NHL hat-trick prop—you name it, he's won it. LeBron been voted “best sports capper in the country” three out of the last four years. But take my advice: don't try calling him for a big game in the clutch. I can’t stress this enough. LeBron probably won't be around to answer the phone, and if he does take your call, he’ll either give you a loser or tell you to ask someone else. Using his regular season picks will earn you a brand new 2013 Chevy Camaro ZL1 and an entertainment system for your family room. Using his postseason and ‘big money’ selections will result in both your house and car being repossessed by the bank. Are you feeling lucky, punk?

Jeremy Lin: You met Jeremy at a blackjack table inside the MGM Grand in Vegas. He was counting cards and placing $1,000 bets while simultaneously talking to you about tomorrow’s baseball lines and reciting works of Shakespeare word for word, all without missing a beat. Anyway, the two of you become friends and he agrees to send you all of his picks over the next three weeks. Sure enough, dude is on fire! Everything Jeremy gives you is gold. You tell all your friends and he becomes a sensation almost everynight. Everyone wants to know Jeremy’s selections for the day! Of course inevitably his success starts to tail off, and eventually you stop hearing from him altogether. You might run into Jeremy again at the tables one day, you might hear about him being found dead in a ditch somewhere in the vast Nevada desert. No one really knows how Jeremy’s gambling career will end. Either way, the success was fun while it lasted, as brief as it may have been.

Tim Tebow: This guy will really frustrate you, but be patient with him. Yep, Tim will empty out almost your entire account throughout the week and then make a huge comeback on Sunday to bring you back into the black. Of course he won’t actually place any bets on his own since gambling is immoral and no goody two-shoes like him would ever be caught partaking in such activities. Still, that’s not of much concern to you. At the end of the day, Tim’s a winner. Maybe it’s all the praying he does before the games. Who knows? In any case, you’re excited to tag along for the financial ride and he’s excited to have a friend. Any friend. But don’t invite him out to get drunk and chase around girls with your winnings—he’s just not that much fun to hang around with. Despite the modest boost to your bank account, you’ll eventually end up ditching Timmy because he’s too damn boring. No worries—you could always replace him with the next guy on this list.

Peyton Manning: One thing’s for sure—I’d really hate to be his bookie. I mean, could you imagine? Peyton spends all morning in his room analyzing statistics and matchups, then demands that you drive over to his house and spend hours watching film of yesterday’s games to discover subtle details about certain teams and players that even Vegas linemakers are likely to miss. Then Peyton continues to scan over thousands of pages of data before calling in his wagers for the evening. Solid approach, no doubt, but right before the games start for the evening, Peyton goes into a frenzy. He starts to flip through all of his documents and waves his hands all over, screaming out all sorts of words and numbers that no one but him seems to understand. Then he’ll call his bookie back minutes before the 7:05 EST MLB games to change almost all of his picks. Talk about a pain in the ass! Well, until payday rolls around, that is. Turns out there’s a method to his madness; he’ll consistently churn out a profit year after year. Stay close to Peyton and put up with all his eccentricities. Trust me, it’s worth it in the end.

Jose Canseco: Jose was basically raised at Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey. At 11 years old, he’d amaze his uncles by calling out winning trifectas inbetween breaks from hustling college kids at PacMan in the lower-level arcade. Every single casino in Atlantic City banned him at the age of 22 for pocketing thousands of dollars in blackjack night in and night out. Not one to be easily deterred, however, Jose continued to terrorize the tables for years using his twin brother’s ID. History was made when Jose became the first gambler ever to win $40 million in 40 weeks at the Taj Mahal.

But as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. Jose and his brother had a falling out which brought Jose’s blackjack career to a screeching halt. Then he got tangled up with crooked jockeys back at the Meadowlands and became part of a college basketball point-shaving scandal at Rutgers. When investigators uncovered the whole mess, Jose turned rat and squealed on everyone. He avoided serious jail time but ended up paying a bigger price—no one wanted him around. He went from icon to outcast quicker than you can say “Yes, detective, I’ll tell you everything.”

Nowadays you’ll find Jose running dice games in the streets of Brooklyn and trying to bribe security guards at Yonkers Raceway to let him in through the gate. It’s not a pretty sight, but it’s his way of holding on to the game that he still loves. Unfortunately for Jose, it’s a game that doesn’t want him anymore, that doesn’t need him anymore. Well past his prime, Jose still says he could put the entire AC strip out of business if he had the chance. But no one believes him. Even worse, no one cares.

21 March 2012

MLB Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 5 Sleepers

Posted in MLB

A couple days ago, we went over five potential fantasy baseball busts for 2012. Today we'll take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum and discuss five sleepers to highlight on your cheat sheets on draft day. 

It's easy to find consistent production in the early rounds of the draft. Ask any fantasy veteran and they will tell you the key to a winning season hinges on making the most out of your mid-to-late round picks.

Last year, teams that drafted Curtis Granderson in Round 8, Asdrubal Cabrera in Round 12 or Kyle Farnsworth in Round 14 were already a leg up on the rest of the competition to start the season.

Here are this year's diamonds in the rough. 


SP Madison Bumgarner (SF)

You’re not going to hear much about Bumgarner; teammates Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain usually command all the attention on the Giants’ pitching staff. But don’t let that fool you—Bumgarner quietly had a terrific season in 2012 and sports a career 3.10 ERA in 52 starts as a big league pitcher.

At around the time that other fantasy owners call out Stephen Strasburg and Chris Carpenter, you be the smart one and add this overlooked starter to your roster instead. You’ll be happy you did.

Projection: 214 IP, 15-10, 3.17 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 217 K


OF Carlos Beltran (STL)

At this time last year, many fantasy “experts” were ready to dig Carlos Beltran’s baseball grave. Beltran proved his critics wrong with a Renaissance season in 2012 as he batted .300 with decent power and run production numbers for the Mets and Giants.

Now with St. Louis, Beltran will bat in the middle of the lineup as long as he’s healthy. Sure, he’ll most likely spend some time on the shelf during the season, but the same can be said about a lot of other guys as well. Take Beltran soon after outfielders Drew Stubbs and Chris Young are off the board.

Projection: .287, 78 R, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB

 

 

SP Hiroki Kuroda (NYY)

Signing Kuroda was a very sneaky move by the Yankees. It flew mostly under the radar, probably because New York also added young stud Michael Pineda to its rotation via a trade. But it just might be the 37-year-old Kuroda that ends up with the better season of the two once the dust settles.

Kuroda is a ground-ball pitcher (a huge plus in Yankee Stadium), has excellent control and strikes out more batters than you think. Kuroda is getting up there in age but it’s safe to bank on a solid 2012—you’ll get sixth-round production with a 10th-round pick.

Projection: 195 IP, 14-12, 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 160 K


DH/C Jesus Montero (SEA)

There’s a reason Seattle wouldn’t give the Yankees Michael Pineda unless they received Jesus Montero in return. The young catching prospect has a very bright future ahead of him, although there are a couple obstacles to overcome in 2012; the Mariners still have veteran catchers Miguel Olivo and John Jaso and Safeco Field isn’t exactly a great place to hit.

Still, you have to figure Montero will get an early chance to show off his bat for the offense-starved Mariners and you’re going to want him on your roster when it happens. Take a chance on Montero towards the end of your draft.

Projection: .284, 58 R, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 1 SB


IF Sean Rodriguez (TB)

Rodriguez has been Tampa Bay’s utility man for the last couple of years and we will finally get to see what he can do with a starting role in 2012. He’ll open up the season at shortstop for the Rays and I’m calling for a breakout season.

Rodriguez won’t hit for a high average, but he will be a 20/20 candidate who is eligible at second base, third base and shortstop (which, ironically, could make him your utility man). Don’t hesitate to draft Rodriguez in the last few rounds—he might come in real handy.

Projection: .260, 67 R, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB

21 March 2012

MLB Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 5 Busts

Posted in MLB

With the start of the regular season fast approaching, your fantasy baseball drafts are also right around the corner. Haven't done your homework yet? Allow me to help you get started with this list of players you should be very cautious about spending a high draft pick on in 2012.

Last season it was guys like Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn and Hanley Ramirez who really doomed fantasy baseball teams—legitimate superstars who were drafted as such and did nothing but drag down team stats and eat up a valuable roster spot all season long.

Of course, the best way to prevent having such disappointing players on your team in the first place is not to draft them. Let someone else call out the following five names on draft day.


1B/OF Michael Morse

Many fantasy owners are going to see those 31 HRs and 95 RBI from last year and draft Michael Morse in the fourth or fifth round. Don't get caught up in the hype. 

First of all, I need to see Morse do that one more time before I invest a high pick in him. Secondly, there's no way he hits over .300 again striking out as often as he does. Morse will still have decent power numbers in 2012, but don't overpay and expect an improvement. It's not coming.

Projection: .272, 67 R, 25 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB


SS Jose Reyes (MIA)

This name has a big red flag next to it on all of my cheat sheets.

For a player who provides most of his value with runs and stolen bases, a series of hamstring problems from last year is not a good sign. And let's be realistic: Reyes hasn't swiped 40 bags in any season since 2008.  

My first few picks in any fantasy baseball draft have to be sure things, and Jose Reyes does not fit that bill any longer. 

Projection: .289, 98 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 36 SB


OF Lance Berkman (STL)

Terrific bounce-back season last year, Lance Berkman—now let's see you do it again.

Berkman turned 36 last month, which, unless your name is Barry Bonds, is not a good thing for a professional baseball player. Also keep in mind that the slugger no longer has Albert Pujols in front of him in the Cardinals' lineup.

Do yourself a big favor and don't pay for last year's Berkman.

Projection: .282, 78 R, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB

 

SP Stephen Strasburg (WAS)



It's not his talent that I'm putting into question; there's no doubt Strasburg has top-notch stuff. It's just there's no way I can feel comfortable using a high draft pick on a pitcher with just 17 major league starts and coming off of Tommy John surgery. 

Even if Strasburg is healthy, he'll be limited by an innings cap and the offense of the Washington Nationals. I have seen Strasburg taken off the board before true studs like Matt Cain and Jon Lester, and that's a mistake. Temper your expectations on draft day.

Projection: 154 innings, 11-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 170 K 


SP Michael Pineda (SEA)

Much like Strasburg, many fantasy owners are drafting Michael Pineda as their No. 1 starter. Not a good idea. Pineda is coming off an impressive rookie season with the Seattle Mariners, but dig through his stats a little and you'll see he posted a 5.12 ERA after the break, suggesting that maybe offenses have started to figure him out. 

Also keep in mind that Pineda is a fly ball pitcher, which can't be good news since he now calls Yankee Stadium home. Will Pineda go through a sophomore slump? Maybe, maybe not—but I want at least two proven vets on my staff before rolling the dice with Pineda.

 

Projection: 184 innings, 13-12, 3.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K

 

15 March 2012

Wanna win your March Madness pool? Listen up!

It’s March Madness. The best sporting event of the year. Do it right! If you have sick days, use them. If you have friends, find them. I’ll be making myself at home at the MGM Grand Sportsbook in Vegas over the next few days in front of all the big screens, holding a glass of scotch with a few of my best WiseGuys next to me. Okay, so I’ll most likely be drinking amaretto sours with a straw and cherry on top. Don’t judge.

Need some help filling out your bracket? No worries, big guy. I got you. All you really need to know is covered in this slideshow. If you’ve already finished and submitted your bracket, go ahead and change it when you’re done reading. You can thank me later—with an amaretto sour. 

1. Don't Try To Be A Hero, Pal!

So you think you’re special because you have #11 NC State and #10 Xavier in your Final Four? Yep, have fun watching the tournament after your bracket is busted by the end of this weekend. I know, I know, we did have an #8 and an #11 seed in last year’s semifinals. Big deal. That won’t happen again for a while. As a matter of fact, in the last 10 tournaments prior to last season, only one team seeded below #5 (George Mason in 2006) advanced to the Final Four. That’s one team out of 40.

Furthermore, since 1991, 53 out of the 84 Final Four teams have been either #1 or #2 seeds (that’s 63%). Go ahead and take a chance with one middle seed if you really like a particular team, but then make sure the rest of your Final Four is filled with big guns.

2. Use Vegas Lines For Early Upset Opportunities

Now that we know to play it safe in later rounds, how about opening weekend? If you can nail down a few upsets in the first four days, it will put you near the top of the leaderboard right off the bat and in good position to make a run at the cash.

But which of the lower seeds should you pick to win a game or two? You can watch ESPN or do research online ‘till you’re blue in the face, but the best way to measure the chances of an upset—and to gain valuable points on the rest of your pool—is to check the lines for individual games. Trust me, Vegas bookmakers know better than everyone else.

First round games that fit the bill this year: #12 Long Beach State is just a four-point underdog to #5 New Mexico (I have LB State winning two games), #14 Belmont is only a 3.5-point dog to #3 Georgetown and #11 seed NC State is actually a 2.5-point favorite over #6 San Diego State. 

3. Don't Count Out The Women In Your Pool

It never fails. You check your pool’s online message board and see that your former college roommate’s friend says that his coworker Megan is joining in. Megan makes a post greeting everyone and announces she knows nothing about basketball and is “just doing it for fun.”


We all know how this story ends. Megan ends up winning the whole thing and buys herself a brand new shoe collection with all of our money. Some kind of “experts” we are! The kicker: Megan let her second-grade students pick most of the games and then decided on the rest by choosing which mascot she liked better.

Moral of the story (from personal experience): Do not talk tournament trash to females—especially in writing. It will come back to haunt you!

4. Listen To Me!

Those of you who follow my daily picks at WiseGuySports know that despite my winning records in the NBA and NHL this year, college hoops has not been my strength (112-131-12 against the spread). No worries—I’ve decided to save the best for last. Here are a few notes from my bracket:

I have just two teams seeded below #5 advancing to the Sweet 16; #8 Kansas State will beat Syracuse in the second round to get there and #13 Belmont will be this year’s Cinderella by upsetting Georgetown and then NC State opening weekend.

Elite 8: #1 Kentucky, #3 Baylor, #1 Mich St, #3 Marquette, #5 Vanderbilt, #2 Ohio State, #1 UNC, #2 Kansas.

Final 4: #1 Kentucky, #3 Marquette, #1 UNC, #2 Ohio St.

Championship game: Kentucky 76, UNC 71.

Do yourself a favor and go with Kentucky to win it all. They are the best team in the tournament. Remember, this isn’t a popularity contest. You are trying to win money here.

The last thing you want to happen is to have a very successful bracket—until the very end where you fall off the leaderboard because you picked Louisville to win it all. 

Bottom line: take a few chances early, stick with the chalk towards the end. 

 

12 February 2012

Betting the NBA: 5 Trends To Follow

Posted in NBA

For sports handicappers, there’s so much information and statistics available on the internet these days that it’s enough to make your head spin. You can spend hours and hours scanning through dozens of betting "trends" for each NBA matchup, but I’m here to tell you that most of them are completely useless.

As an example, Covers.com says that the "under" is 13-6 in the last 19 games that the Boston Celtics have played on a Sunday. Does that mean that Boston plays tougher defense on Sundays? Are foul shots attempted from two feet farther back during Sunday games? Of course not. That 13-6 mark is purely coincidence and it would be no surprise if Boston’s next 10 Sunday games all went "over."

Indeed, not all betting trends are created equal. Smart cappers know which ones they might be able to profit from and which ones to ignore. As a general rule of thumb, it’s wise to skip over obscure trends such as “Pistons are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.” If you are going to bet your money based on that nugget of information, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Stick to the basics, kid.

Here are five trends that you should be paying attention to.

 

Bet AGAINST home teams when Joey Crawford is officiating

Home team advantage? Not when Joey Crawford is around.

Home teams are an astonishing 5-14 ATS this season when Crawford is officiating. And this isn’t anything new—teams playing in their own building are 70-95 over the last three seasons when the 35-year NBA vet is calling the shots. Even going back a decade ago to the 2001-02 season, Crawford’s ATS record for home teams was a ridiculous 25-52-2.

Though I can’t say I’m surprised. Whenever I watch this guy referee a basketball game, it looks like he actually gets a thrill out of ruling against the home team whenever he gets a chance. Maybe he enjoys being disliked by an arena full of people on a nightly basis? Who knows? After all, this is the same guy who challenged Tim Duncan to a fight a few years back­, so he’s got some issues.

All I know for sure is that I look for Crawford’s name in the referee assignments every morning (Covers.com releases them around 11:00 am eastern time) and automatically add two points to the road team in my point spread projections. That’s a huge edge in the long run.

 

Bet UNDER on game totals

 

Many NBA analysts wondered how the lockout would affect performance this season. So far, the answer has been bad shooting and lower final scores. The "under" is hitting at a 55 percent clip this year (232-189), and bookmakers everywhere couldn’t be happier.

Sharp bettors understand that NBA totals are inflated up ever so slightly since the general public pours a lot more money into the "over" than the "under."

As a former bookie, I can confirm that about four out of five wagers I took in on totals were for the game to go 'over'. Talk about amateur hour! Although if you have money on the game, I suppose it has to be more enjoyable to root for teams to score than it is to cheer for missed baskets. But handicapping basketball isn’t about fun—it’s about turning a profit. Plus, you’ll never have more fun watching an NBA game with a final score of 81-73.


Bet AGAINST Washington Wizards

The Wizards were the absolute worst team in the league against the spread last season, finishing with a record of 32-50.

Las Vegas bookmakers have failed to adjust so far this year as Washington enters today’s action with an ATS record of 8-18, again the worst mark in the league.

As a matter of fact, going back to the start of the 2008-2009 season, the team that plays in the nation’s capital is 106-162-2 since Obama was elected president. Coincidence? Probably, but either way, the Wizards look like a JV high school team on most nights.

John Wall has a ton of talent and potential, but it has yet to materialize into any type of success for his team. I’d continue to bet against Washington every night until they prove they can cover a few games in a row.


Bet ON Chicago Bulls

A solid defense (which will give me a chance to win every night), a great point guard who can control the game late in the fourth quarter (to help avoid the dreaded backdoor cover) and a team that plays well on the road (shows focus and discipline).

That team is the Chicago Bulls. Behind Derrick Rose and that terrific D, the Bulls are 18-11 ATS this year after a 49-31-2 mark last year—both second best in the league. Bookmakers are hesitant to open up the Bulls as heavy favorites because Chicago doesn’t always light up the scoreboard like some other teams do, but they more than make up for that on the other end of the court.

Add the Bulls to your betting card as often as you can—it’s usually a smart nvestment.

 

Bet UNDER on L.A. Lakers

When you hear "LA Lakers," you think excitement, you think Kobe Bryant, you think Showtime!

That’s exactly what bookmakers want you to think, because nowadays, the truth is that the Lakers struggle to find consistent scoring from anyone besides the Black Mamba and Pau Gasol, and the team ends up in many grind-it-out defensive battles as a result.

Los Angeles’ over/under record stands at 10-16 so far this year after a 33-49 clip last season and 35-46 the season before that; all those marks are easily near the very bottom of the league.

Nope, these aren’t your father's Lakers anymore, but it could still be Showtime! for your bottom line if you side with the "under" when the Lakers take the court.


All trends and statistics courtesy of Covers.com.